Global stocks tumble as tech sector leads market downturn

Understanding this week’s market sell-off

​The global stock market experienced a significant downturn, reminiscent of the August meltdown, in the course of this week. US markets led the sell-off on their first day of September trading, with Asian and European indices following suit. The Volatility Index (VIX), often referred to as "Wall Street's fear gauge", surged from 15.6 to 20.7, reaching its highest level in three weeks. ​This market volatility was primarily triggered by concerns about the US economy, following weaker manufacturing and then labour data. The ISM release, closely watched by investors, played a crucial role in sparking the global sell-off, similar to last month's events.

​Historically, September and October tend to be weak months for stocks in election years. This pattern, combined with the current economic uncertainties, has left investors cautious about the market's near-term prospects, especially ahead of Friday’s US non-farm payrolls (NFP). If these come in weaker-than-expected, as they did in August, sparking last month’s sharp sell-off, another swift decline in global stock indices may be on the cards.

Tech sector bears the brunt of the sell-off

​The technology sector, particularly semiconductor stocks, faced the heaviest losses during this week’s market downturn. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index fell by 5.2%, marking its most significant drop in a month. ​UBS reported an 11.1% month-on-month decline in semiconductor sales in July, with memory business sales plummeting by 31%. This sharp decline in the semiconductor industry has had a ripple effect across the tech sector.

​NVIDIA​​​, a key player in the artificial intelligence (AI) chip market, saw its shares slide by around 12% since Tuesday, including after-hours trading. The decline was made worse by the US Department of Justice deepening its antitrust probe into NVIDIA, sending the company a subpoena. This investigation assesses whether NVIDIA is using its dominant position in the AI data centre chip market to disadvantage rivals. This week’s NVIDIA's share price drop resulted in a staggering loss of over $250 billion in market capitalisation. For traders interested in the tech sector, these market movements may present opportunities to open positions in various tech stocks or indices.

Other potential bearish signs

​The fact that the AAII Sentiment Survey only recently hit extremes last seen at the end of 2021, preceding the 2022 decline, may point to further weakness in global stock indices. When at bullish extremes, the survey tends to act as a contrary indicator, showing complacency among bullish investors. Once buying pressure has dried up, stock markets tend to decline as no more fresh buyers are entering the previously bullish trend.

The fact that the US yield curve uninverted only last week also doesn’t bode well for the US stock market. Nearly each time it did so since the 1950s, such a change in the yield curve was followed by a recession.

Factors influencing market sentiment

​Several factors are contributing to the current market volatility. Investors are exercising caution ahead of critical labour market data due to be published on Friday. The NFP report, in particular, is widely regarded as crucial in determining whether the US Federal Reserve (Fed) will opt for a quarter or half percentage point interest rate cut later this month. ​These economic indicators can have a significant impact on forex trading, as currency values often fluctuate in response to economic news.